Okay, per my previous post I dug up the data. And I do mean dug, thank you Edgar (SEC website containing archives of 10-Q’s, etc).
To remind you, a friend had requested I revisit my analysis of Oracle vs. SAP. This time, he asked I include Siebel and Peoplesoft as if they had been part of Oracle forever. I was to take the combined numbers and model how they compared against SAP over a 4-5 year time horizon. Make sense?
So I went back to calendar Q1 of 2002 and combined the license revenues of Oracle and Siebel and Peoplesoft, then charted the result against SAP’s numbers. The chart revealed the following:
Then, because the data is so spiky I filtered to a rolling 4Q average. This means my first data point shifted from Q102 to Q402. But I think you’ll agree the trend was much clearer. Here’s the 2nd chart.
What conclusion should you draw from the charts? I’m not sure. One way to read it is SAP was running away with the show and Oracle’s acquisitions of Peoplesoft and Siebel did nothing but quicken the pace. But I always thought the Peoplesoft acquisition was a fantastic move even if it led to losses against SAP – after all, it hurt IBM’s ability to attack Oracle & hurt Microsoft’s technology stack strategy (vs. Linux). I speculate Oracle was in effect just choosing its competitor in SAP.
But just as I said in my prior analysis, Oracle’s “Q206″ was too big to ignore. It may signal a shift towards Oracle taking share from SAP. And even if it’s a few points a quarter, that would be a big deal. But we’ll need Q306 numbers from both firms to get a better read on what’s happening.
So here’s a last chart before closing with a few ancillary comments. This one supposes the market is just made up of SAP and Oracle (including Siebel and Peoplesoft). It shows percent share trends based on rolling 4Q averages. After benefitting from Oracle’s acquisitions and growing to 67% share, this past quarter SAP gave 3 points back to close at 64%.
Sidebar comments:
1) The new charts are from Keynote, because I just couldn’t stand the crappy look of Excel anymore. That said, please don’t think I decided 187.5 was a good y-axis major tick mark :)
2) In terms of the Euro to Dollar conversion, I used average annual rates just like SAP cite in their annual reports. Certainly this is a little more accurate than the flat rate of 1.24 I used in the last analysis.
3 responses so far ↓
Manoj Ranaweera // 08/1/06 3:08 PM at 3:08 pm |
Excellent analysis. Now how about doing a similar with Ariba, Procuri, Bottomline Technologies and others from eProcurement point of view. Perhaps I should do it from EIPP point of view (time permitting).
Jason Busch // 08/1/06 6:58 PM at 6:58 pm |
Wait for Vista, my friend. The charting capability will be great …
Dave Stephens // 09/20/06 8:55 AM at 8:55 am |
I noticed quite a few hits on this post today, the day after Oracle announced their fiscal Q1 numbers (would align with Q3 in the chart above). We need another data point from SAP, which will be available in a month, to know if Oracle’s claims of additional market share gains are true. That said, picture 228M license on the charts above and you’ll get a sense of how the quarter stacked up against prior – my read is last Oracle fiscal Q1 was truly awful, and this Q1 was pretty good & therefore great by comparison. Still, 228MM for the combined businesses of Oracle, Peoplesoft, JDEdwards, and Siebel seems a little light. +1 month from now and we’ll know for sure either way.
You must be logged in to post a comment.